Climate Change Jobs

ANNEX 1 (Revised) Terms of Reference Background: Namibia’s climate is generally hot and dry, with sparse and erratic rainfall. 92% of the land area is defined as very-arid, arid, or semi-arid. The country also experiences persistent droughts, water scarcity, sporadic severe flooding, and unpredictable and variable rainfall patterns. Namibia’s socio-ecological characteristics make it one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. Future climate-related risks could be anticipated and negative impacts reduced by accelerating action on climate change adaptation and resilience. As such, the Government of the Republic of Namibia, under the leadership of the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism (MEFT), has successfully secured funding support of USD 3 million from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) through the Namibia Nature Foundation (NNF) to develop Namibia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP). The objectives of the NAP process are: (1) to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience; and (2) to facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels. It will be informed by data, science, comprehensive vulnerability analyses and local knowledge to identify, design and implement adaptation actions that address local and national needs. The project will achieve this objective through four inter-related outcomes: 1. Adaptation planning governance and institutional coordination is strengthened; 2. The evidence basis has been produced to design adaptation solutions for maximum impact; 3. Private sector engagement in adaptation catalysed; and 4. Adaptation finance increased. Under the Evidence Basis outcome, three complementary areas of work will provide the foundation of evidence to inform subsequent adaptation planning: • Output 3.2.1: Future climate change projections, risks and levels of uncertainty have been ascertained taking into account different global mitigation scenarios and socioeconomic pathways • Output 3.2.2 Assessments of climate change vulnerabilities have been conducted at the local level • Output 3.2.3 Estimations of costs of climate change impacts (cost of inaction) have been produced. This assignment relates to Output 3.2.1. The results of this assignment will form an input into output 3.2.2 and 3.2.3. This work will collectively form the evidence basis to inform the other outcomes in the NAP project. More details on the NAP Project can be found here: https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/20230707-namibia.pdf Objectives: The consultancy is comprised of two parts. Part 1 aims to provide bias-corrected downscaled climate change projections for Namibia at a resolution of at least 10km by 10km, over a range of time horizons until 2100, covering a range of key terrestrial and marine climatic variables, under several (2-3) different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Part 2 aims to model climate impacts on key ecosystems and ecosystem services, land uses, marine uses, and human wellbeing in Namibia under these different climate change scenarios. Under both parts, the consultancy will include an element of capacity building and knowledge transfer to local Namibian research institutes. Scope of work: The selected firm will, in consultation with NNF, undertake the following tasks: Part 1: Develop downscaled climate change projections for key terrestrial and marine climate variables for 2-3 future scenarios, for time horizons until at least 2100 employing dynamically downscaled data, and applying bias correction, reconstruction and/or statistical techniques to maximise accuracy and address biases. Geographic scope includes the entire land area of Namibia, extending beyond the borders where relevant (e.g. rivers: Kavango, Zambezi, Kunene, Orange, catchment areas) as well as the entire Namibian coastline and exclusive economic zone. Climate variables may include the following: a) Annual rainfall totals b) Annual mean precipitation c) Annual maximum daily precipitation d) Annual average near-surface temperature e) Annual maximum temperature f) Annual minimum temperature g) Mean annual temperature h) Number of extreme hot days (heat waves) i) Number of extreme cold days j) Relative humidity k) Evapotranspiration l) Solar radiation m) Surface pressure n) Intense rainfall events o) Wind (speed/direction) p) Fire danger q) Drought index r) Soil moisture index s) Coastal fog t) Sea surface temperature (SST) u) Ocean currents (surface and subsurface) v) Sea level w) Ocean upwelling dynamics Part 2: Develop robust models of physical climate change impacts to specific ecosystems, land uses, marine uses and human wellbeing, under the above-mentioned future scenarios. Geographic scope includes the entire land area of Namibia where relevant, or relevant region, ecosystem or area, extending beyond the borders where relevant (e.g. river catchment areas) as well as the entire Namibian coastline and exclusive economic zone where relevant. The indicators to be modelled may include the following: 1. Ecosystems and ecosystem services: a) Groundwater availability, quality and recharge; b) Surface water availability; c) Water flow dynamics in perennial and ephemeral rivers, floodplains, and oshanas; d) Water availability and salinity of lagoons, wetlands, salt pans and estuaries e) Extent of coastal fog belt (frequency, intensity and reach of fog); f) Shifts in ecosystems and vegetation zones; g) Vegetation cover and composition across key ecosystems h) Shifts in phenological cycles of key species (e.g. breeding, migration, flowering etc) i) Abundance and distribution of key rare, endangered and endemic species j) Abundance and distribution of keystone and iconic species k) Abundance and distribution of key indicator species of ecosystem health across key ecosystems l) Abundance and distribution of key invasive alien species m) Incidence of wildfire 2. Land uses: a) Productivity of key commercial and subsistence crops b) Incidence of crop pest outbreaks c) Productivity of grazing land (carrying capacity) d) Productivity of key livestock and smallstock breeds e) Incidence of livestock/smallstock disease outbreaks f) Incidence of food insecurity g) Productivity of wildlife production systems h) Productivity of commercial and subsistence inland fisheries i) Extent of bush encroachment and land degradation j) Availability of key non-timber forest products in Namibia’s woodland zones (e.g., Kavango/Zambezi Miombo woodlands, mopane woodlands and thornbush savannas). 3. Marine uses: a) Productivity and distribution of key commercially and ecologically important fish species b) Productivity and biodiversity of marine ecosystem c) Productivity of kelp d) Productivity of other key marine and coastal species (e.g. marine mammals, seabirds, phytoplankton) e) Productivity of small scale and artisanal fisheries 4. Human wellbeing: a) Incidence of vector-borne and infectious diseases b) Incidence of heat stress and heat-related illness c) Incidence of damage to infrastructure as a result of sea level rise, coastal flooding, storm surges, and coastal erosion. d) Incidence of flooding of human settlements e) Incidence of damage to infrastructure as a result of inland flooding and/or extreme temperatures. For both part 1 and part 2 of this work, the firm is expected to include up to two researchers from Namibian academic or research institutes (PhD students or post-doc researchers) to be part of the research team, to provide an opportunity for capacity building and knowledge transfer to local research institutions. These researchers will be assigned by the NNF at the contract negotiation stage. In addition, the firm is expected to provide a small, bespoke training on climate modelling to local researchers. Key Milestones/ Deliverables: 1. Conduct an inception meeting with key stakeholders to validate scope of work and seek input into the key variables and indicators to be modelled. 2. An inception report which includes the methodology and approach for the assignment as well as the workplan. 3. Downscaled climate projections for the above-mentioned climate variables at a resolution of at least 10km by 10km, over a range of time horizons until 2100, covering a range of key terrestrial and marine climatic variables, under several (2-3) different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). These shall be provided in a format that can be shared and uploaded to a platform for use by other researchers, as well as in the form of graphs, charts and maps as appropriate. 4. A report setting out the results of the climate projections exercise highlighting key findings, trends and recommendations, along with key graphics and maps. 5. A slide deck that sets out the key results of the climate projections exercise in a clear and understandable manner for a non-expert audience. 6. Develop climate models of physical climate change impacts to specific ecosystems, land uses, marine uses and human wellbeing as per the above-mentioned indicators, under the same set of future scenarios, disaggregated by relevant geographic and ecological zones. These shall be provided in a format that can be shared and uploaded to a platform for use by other researchers, as well as in the form of graphs, charts and maps as appropriate. Climate models shall apply the climate projections developed in Part 1 as well as additional relevant ecological, agricultural, sectoral and land use data. 7. A report setting out the results of the climate modelling exercise highlighting key findings, trends and recommendations, any key underlying assumptions, along with key graphics and maps. 8. A slide deck that sets out the key results of the climate modelling exercise in a clear and understandable manner for a non-expert audience. 9. Conduct a stakeholder workshop to present the findings of the climate projections and modelling exercise to stakeholders across a wide range of sectors, to seek feedback and to discuss the implications of the findings. 10. Conduct a training workshop for local researchers on climate projections and modelling. Firm Profile: Required qualifications and experience for this assignment include the following: Lead Climate Scientist (Part 1) – Masters or PhD in climate science – At least 10 years relevant experience in climatology, including experience in developing climate projections using dynamic downscaling – Experience working with African climate data and regional climate models to produce dynamic downscaled climate projections in Southern Africa. – Demonstrated ability to communicate complex scientific methods and results in a clear and concise manner to a wide range of stakeholders Lead Climate Modeller/Ecologist (Part 2) – Masters or PhD in ecology, environmental science, agriculture, fisheries, climate change, or related field – At least 10 years relevant experience in the application of climate science to at least one of the focus areas (ecology and biodiversity, agriculture and land use, fisheries/marine ecology or human health and wellbeing) in a southern African context – Ability to use remote sensing and GIS data to model land use and ecosystem response to climate change. – Experience with a range of quantitative modelling techniques for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, land use, marine use and/or human health – Demonstrated ability to communicate complex scientific methods and results in a clear and concise manner to a wide range of stakeholders Additional team members should ideally include the following: – Expertise in water resource management and hydrological modelling – Expertise in biodiversity and ecosystems in a Namibian context – Expertise in agriculture and land use in a Namibian context – Expertise in fisheries and marine ecosystems – Experience in GIS, spatial data analysis, remote sensing – Experience with climate change modelling for ecosystems, biodiversity, land use, marine use and human health – Experience in writing and communicating complex scientific information for non-academic technical and lay audiences Payment Schedule: Payment Schedule payment amount (% of contract value) Milestone First payment 10% Upon signature Second payment 20% Upon Completion of Inception Workshop and Inception Report Third Payment 30% Upon submission and acceptance of deliverables related to Part 1 Fourth Payment 30% Upon submission and acceptance of deliverables related to Part 2 Final Payment 10% Upon completion of final stakeholder workshop, and satisfactory finalisation of both reports integrating stakeholder feedback Duration of the assignment: This assignment is anticipated to take place between October 2025 – June 2026 for an estimated 180 expert days. Duty Station: Home-based with three anticipated missions to Windhoek during the contract period, when residing outside Windhoek. These missions shall include the attendance of workshops. For any unforeseen official mission apart from this TOR mentioned, the Consultant will be requested to submit the concept note of mission for approval by the NNF prior to undertaking any mission. Institutional Arrangements: The consultant will work under the supervision of the NAP Project Management Unit (PMU), and NNF Leadership Team. The NNF retains the right to select two separate bidders to complete Part 1 and Part 2 of this assignment, should none of the firms fully meet the requirements for both Part 1 and Part 2 of this assignment.  

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